Choked by sanctions, Putin no longer knows what to do with his gas
On December 31, 2024, Ukraine put an end to the transit of Russian gas to Europe via its territory. A serious blow for Russian state giant Gazprom.
Michael Bradshaw, Professor of Global Energy at the University of Warwick (England), and Steve Pye, Professor of Energy Systems at University College London, take stock of the situation in an interview with online media outlet The Conversation.
“So far, the European Union (EU) hasn't imposed sanctions on Russian gas imports, but it has sanctioned the Arctic LNG 2 project and associated shipping,” point out the two British researchers. “And it has banned the reloading of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) in EU ports. The rapid reduction in pipeline exports to Europe is the result of Russian actions, such as the insistence on payment in rubles, as well as the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines.”
On January 4, Michael Bradshaw, Steve Pye and several other colleagues published a study in Nature Communications detailing two possible future geopolitical scenarios for Russian gas exports, reports the Korii media. In the first scenario, called “limited markets”, the European Union would stop importing Russian gas by 2027, and all other markets would be disrupted by sanctions on Russian LNG. This projection would also be marked by the absence of pipeline construction. This is a likely scenario if Russia and China fail to agree on the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline.
In a second scenario, dubbed the “pivot to Asia”, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping would reach agreement on the Power of Siberia 2 project, and Moscow would succeed in accelerating its exports in the form of liquefied natural gas, says Korii. In this scenario, Russia would continue to supply Europe through the TurkStream pipeline (via the Black Sea), and the EU would allow Russian gas imports. This is what the current situation looks like.
“Overall, Russia will find it difficult to return to pre-crisis gas export levels,” say the British researchers. “Compared to 2020, Russia's gas exports will have fallen by 31% to 47% by 2040, under the 'limited outlets' scenario, and by 13% to 38% under the 'pivot to Asia' strategy.” And China won't be able to make up for it all.
“Will the EU stand firm and renounce all Russian gas imports by 2027, or could the end of the war in Ukraine bring about a radical U-turn? Will Russia be able to find new export routes and new markets for its huge gas reserves?” Michael Bradshaw and Steve Pye ask.
(MH with Manon Pierre - Source : Korii - Illustration : Pixabay)